Forward-looking: The asteroid that has 1-in-43 odds of hitting Earth in 2032 has an even smaller chance of colliding with something else instead: our moon. The object, around half the size of a football field, would cause an explosion on the lunar surface 343 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, and could be visible from our planet.
It was reported in January that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in December 2032. A few weeks later, those odds were reduced to a more worrying 1-in-48 chance. It means the likelihood of the 180-foot-wide asteroid hitting us has almost doubled from 1.2% to 2.3%, which is still pretty low, admittedly.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 isn't big enough to annihilate humanity, thankfully, but it could still reduce a city to rubble, potentially killing millions of people. Traveling at 30,000 mph, it would release around 8 megatons of energy upon impact, more than 500 times the energy released by the Hiroshima nuclear bomb.
While the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth are pretty slim, there's an even smaller chance that it will collide with the moon – around 0.3%, according to New Scientist.
If asteroid 2024 YR4 does hit the moon, it would leave a crater measuring anywhere from 500 to 2,000 meters (1,640 to 6,561 feet) across. It's estimated that the collision would release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs and likely be visible from Earth.
The moon's crater-covered surface is an indication of how many asteroids have impacted our natural satellite. Its largest crater, the South Pole-Aitken basin, is more than 1,500 miles in diameter.
If the asteroid becomes the latest to hit the moon, we should be quite safe – certainly safer than if it hit us. Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist that any ejected material from the lunar surface would likely burn up in the Earth's atmosphere.
Scientists are now using the James Webb Space Telescope to take a closer look at asteroid 2024 YR4. This should allow for a more accurate estimate of its size based on the heat it emits rather than how bright it is.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may miss Earth in 2032 and hit the moon instead
